Posted: Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]

Yesterday, I published a post here examining the year-to-year correlations for several ball-in-play (BIP) pitching metrics. The results published there've some use on their own. Like a request of that information, however, Id like to take a look at the nine potential free agent starting pitchers (besides Zack Greinke) whose teams faced a qualifying offer decision this offseason, and find out how this analysis might impact their valuation.

Below, youll find two tables. The very first, for reference, is really a collection of all of the year-to-year correlations from yesterdays post. Next is another table, featuring how each of the nine pitchers fared based on each metric. Comments regarding each pitchers in greater depth appear below that.

First, the correlation coefficients from yesterdays post:

Correlation Coefficients, 2014-15 ERA QualifiersMetricCoefficientK%0.81BB%0.66Pop%0.53Fly%0.76LD%0.14GB%0.86FL/LD0.37GB AUTH0.25BIP AUTH0.37ERA0.45FIP0.65TRU ERA0.72

Remember: a 100% correlation (1.00 within the above table) is obtained once the two sets of data are totally identical. The closer to 1.00, the higher amount of correlation backward and forward data sets.

Now what follows would be the nine pitchers in question. Stats are presented as an index, where 100 is average, above 100 is excellent, and below 100 is substandard. Questions regarding the various metrics? A far more thorough explanation are available in yesterdays post.

2014-15 QO Candidates Key Stats Scaled to 100NameK%BB%POP%FLY%LD%GB%F/L PRDGB PRDBIP PRDACT ERAACT FIPTRU ERABrett Anderson7782126072145127969895101102Wei-Yin Chen97711531099692981021008310489Marco Estrada9110416814874737089747811075Yovani Gallardo771186584105111971089685100102His. Iwakuma10856599388114111110100889382Ian Kennedy1219810411910884114103121110116101John Lackey977913398971009211196719291Jeff Samardzija9074111115101889010310212410594J. Zimmermann986315410610392122101105949695

*****

Brett Anderson (Profile)Status: Accepted qualifying offer from Dodgers

Andersons key strength is his stratospheric grounder rate, the best in the majors this past year, over two standard deviations higher than league average. His walk rate was also an optimistic, over one half standard deviation lower than league average. Our correlation coefficients tell us that these are likely true talents, and really should recur moving forward. Unfortunately, exactly the same doesnt apply to his low liner rate, that was over two Montravius Adams Jersey standard deviations below league average. Because a ground baller as Anderson is, repeating his 66.3% grounder rate would be a significant feat, and any reduction likely will translate point for reason for an increase in liner rate.

His chief weakne s is his low K rate, and our correlation coefficients tell us he cant expect much help moving forward. The only way this type of low-K pitcher can survive would be to po se s a defining BIP frequency and/or authority talent; Andersons grounder-inducing skill is simply that. It must be emphasized, however, this elite grounder skill simply made him a league average starter. To s in the truth that, due to injuries, 2015 was the first time in six years that Anderson was a period qualifier, and its tough to observe how Anderson improves came from here. He was a good idea to accept the QO; he must prove he is able to remain healthy before any club will invest multiple years in him.

*****

Wei-Yin Chen (Profile)Status: Free Agent

Chens chief strengths are his high appear and low BB rates, which were both more than one full standard deviation better than league average. The correlation coefficients inform us these are true talents, highly prone to recur continuing to move forward. In addition, Chen is one of the younger members of we, and also one of the most reliable. He has never reached 200 innings inside a season, but has consistently taken the ball every fifth day and averaged six innings per outing in his four seasons in the majors.

While Chen has yielded a large number of fly balls, he's consistently managed their authority near a league average level. FIP doesnt like high fly ball rates, and dings Chen accordingly. Tru ERA gives him credit for his ability to contain damage in the air. Our correlation coefficients tell us talent is involved to some extent here, though randomne s is as well. Chen wouldn't appear to have great upside above his current performance level, but his floor and the reliability level are high. He deserves at least 3 years around the open market, in an annual rate a little south from the QO level.

*****

Marco Estrada (Profile)Status: Re-signed with Blue Jays

Estrada inked a two year, $26 million deal just prior to the QO deadline. He was my AL contact manager of the year: his Adjusted Contact Score mark of 74 (within the BIP PRD column above) was best in the AL. His very high pop up rates are his chief strength, and it is one he's maintained throughout his career. Also, his relative production allowed mark on fly balls/liners of 70 is off-the-charts low and drove his 2015 succe s. As Brewer fans, and our correlation coefficients, let you know, that figure has varied a little from year to year.

Estradas liner rate allowed, like Andersons, is incredibly low, and should be anticipated to regre s moving forward. Though it has now been very reasonable for 3 years running, theres only Randall Cobb Jersey so much talent at work here. Estradas rate also cro sed over into below league average territory in 2015, which is a bit concerning continuing to move forward. FIP doesnt appreciate Estradas contact management skills, that are very real. Having said that, 2015 would be a best case scenario for Estrada, a first-time ERA qualifier at 31. Nowhere Jays played his situation well; locking him for 2 years below the QO annual rate is a solid risk/reward play.

*****

Yovani Gallardo (Profile)Status: Free Agent

The most positive item here's Gallardos high grounder rate; it has been commonplace throughout his career, and 2015 represented a career best relative to the league. The grounders arent disappearing. His other positive, on an actual production-allowed basis, was his containment of fly ball/liner damage; when adjusted for relative BIP authority, however, his performance slides much nearer to league average. Unlike Estradas case, FIP gets it right this time: Gallardos fortune on fly balls caused his 2015 ERA to become much lower than his FIP and tru ERA.

Now, the negatives. Steadily declining K rate during the last few years, sharp increase in BB rate in 2015. Our correlation coefficients tell us not to count on imminent turnaround of these trends. Though Gallardo has answered the bell consistently over the years, his quality is not likely to match his innings quantity moving forward. Hes a league average pitcher inside a near best-case scenario in almost any year moving forward. Dollars per year should be a larger concern than length of contract from a team perspective. I might be comfy Rick Lovato Jerseywith 3 years, but Im not cozy once the bidding gets past $10 million per year. Hell likely have more than that, and it probably wont end well.

*****

Hisashi Iwakuma (Profile)Status: Free Agent

There are a couple of fairly obvious strengths here: BB and grounder rates well above average, by more than one full and one half standard deviation, respectively. Those are true talents, and important ones. Iwakumas K rates are also solid, near the top of the typical range among starting pitchers. A really low liner rate also helped drive his 2015 succe s, but as we can see from our correlation coefficients, we should not expect this to persist continuing to move forward.

On the negative side, Iwakuma does allow all types of batted balls to be hit harder compared to league average, though his strong frequency mix kept his adjusted contact score under control at 100, the league average. Qualitatively, Iwakuma reaches or near the top of this group. Nice K/BB profile, plenty of grounders good stuff. The big i sue here's advancing age and reliability. Returning to his days in Japan, he has been susceptible to nagging injuries with an ongoing basis. A third guaranteed year at $15-plus million gets him done, though teams will likely try to operate in a third-year vesting option instead.

*****

Ian Kennedy (Profile)Status: Free Agent

Ah, the guy many thought should take the QO. His advantages and disadvantages are in-your-face obvious. His K rates are by far the best of this group, and one of just two, along with Iwakuma, measurably above league average. Thats his lone plus, but its an enormous one, and something our correlation coefficients tell us is likely to persist.

On another hand, boy, do guys hit the ball hard against him. His frequency mix is way from ideal, rich in fly ball and liner rates. While liner minute rates are usually random, Kennedys liner rate allowed continues to be greater than league average in four from the last five seasons. There needs to be some true talent, or lack thereof, at work here. His 121 Adjusted Contact Score was the worst among NL ERA qualifiers in 2015. His managing contacts skills can be harmful, although not 121 bad; Ill mark him for true talent of 110, which makes him a durable, slightly better than league average starter right now. Hell remain so until his K rate gives way. A golf club in a big park with a good defense should pony up 3 years for Kennedy, who could be a bargain around $10-12 million per year.

*****

John Lackey (Profile)Status: Free Agent

Theres lots of near-league-averagene s in Lackeys profile, aside from his one- Jeff Janis Jersey half standard deviation better than league-average BB and appear rates. This is probably a pretty good time to bring up the truth that, during these circles, league average is pretty good. Do you know the typical NL ERA qualifier struck out 8.06 batters per nine innings last season? In these days of le s contact, fewer walks and much more ground balls, the stakes happen to be raised for starting pitchers. That Lackey, uh, lacks a glaring weakne s at his advanced age is quite impre sive.

That said, Lackey was nowhere near as good as actual ERA last season. His FIP and tru ERA have been in agreement: hes a near-average contact authority manager with a slightly better than average BIP frequency mix. At his age, he shouldn't be expecting more than two guaranteed seasons, but the top quality he brings could land him $16-17 million per season. Given the Cards needs and Lackeys succe s in St. Louis, expect the two sides arrive at a gathering of the minds.

*****

Jeff Samardzija (Profile)Status: Free Agent

There are an awful lot of conflicting signals in Samardzijas profile. The large positive is his low BB rate, on the full standard deviation below league average and the third best among of this group of pitchers. Other than that, his biggest pros arent available on a stat line. Its his durability, raw stuff, size and athleticism that set him apart, and teams believing theres more in the tank.

On the gloomy from the ledger, the precipitous drop in his K rate last season stands out. Our correlation coefficients make us ponder whether he can recapture his past prowe s in this region. In addition, Samardzijas frequency profile took a turn for the worst last season, as his fly ball rate spiked and grounder rate dropped. His actual 2015 performance flew in the face of projected correlation with prior year performance. The biggest final takeaway is incorporated in the last three columns of the aforementioned table, however. His relative tru ERA of 94 easily outstrips his relative FIP (105) and the abysmal relative ERA (124). He was killed by the poor White Sox defense. Even with the negative developments in his frequency and authority Geronimo Allison Jersey profiles, Samardzija should have been an excellent starter in 2015. With a few targeted improvement, his ceiling remains high. Expect a four year, $60-70 million deal for the big guy.

*****

Jordan Zimmermann (Profile)Status: Free Agent

The 2015 version of Jordan Zimmermann was a bit like 2015 Jeff Samardzija. Zimmermanns most eminent trait was his low BB rate, over a full standard deviation below league average, and better than any pitcher about this list. Unlike Samardzija, this has been Zimmermanns trademark throughout his major league career. In addition, he has created a significant pop up tendency, also having a rate over a standard deviation better than the league.

As for negatives, Zimmermann allowed fairly hard fly ball/line drive contact (122 Adjusted F/LD Contact Score), which fortunately, our correlation coefficients inform us isnt solely tied into true talent. After taking his relatively strong BIP mix into consideration, his overall Adjusted Contact Score is a much more tolerable 105. His true talent in that area is probably nearer to league average, which will likely move his tru ERA nearer to 90 than his 2015 mark of 95. Hes young, consistent, includes a very high floor and a decent ceiling. He's a chance for a five-year deal, and should earn between $16-18 million each year.

*****

An awful much more compared to numbers discu sed here come into play when making a substantial free agent commitment. Theres health, makeup, athleticism, etc. Still, in a minimum, as a club enters this proce s, they must know which numbers on the free agents record are likely to recur, or perhaps improve, moving forward. Bad deals abound in free agency, in which you must remember the golden rule: purchase exactly what the player is going to do, not what hes already done.

Posted: Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]

 Bryce Petty Jersey

There's a justification Alex Ovechkin is considered the best hockey players acro s the globe. He will do i sues that normal mankind could only want.

On Saturday with the Montreal Canadians, the Washington Capitals' forward scored on Carey Price on your play that Keyshawn Johnson Jersey a number of individuals have trouble learning to live without dealing with skates, ice, opponents or even a goalie.

MORE: Stadium Series Robby Anderson Jersey in photos |NHL-Super Bowl prop bets

It's not unusual to check out players score from behind the objective Lorenzo Mauldin Jersey line. Also, it is common to look at players juggle the puck on stick. But to complete the whole thing within a sequence? That's rather impre sive.

Which is strictly why he's one of the better hockey players globally.

Also, the Capitals Dexter McDougle Jersey won this online game 5-0.

(GIF via Reddit)

Posted: Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]

 A few hours when the Pittsburgh Ereck Flowers Jersey Penguins closed magic of making up about the same disciplinary i sue, another (considerably more minor) one opened.

Defenseman Deryk Engelland was ejected from Saturday's game against the Detroit Steve Weatherford Jersey Red Wings for hitting Justin Abdelkader through the head. Text me saging isn't be suspended get rid of.

Here's video:

Also working against Engelland: a three-game suspension in the year 2011 for leaving his feet hitting Chicago's Marcus Kruger from the Cole Farrand Jersey head, has Abdelkader was injured about the play.

Earlier from the day, Boston Bruins Jay Bromley Jersey winger Shawn Thornton was suspended 15 games for dragging down Brooks Orpik and punching him hard. Pittsburgh's James Neal the 2009 week was suspended five games for kneeind Brad Janoris Jenkins Jersey Marchand inside head seconds just before the Thornton-Orpik incident.

MORE: Longest NHL suspensions of all the time

Posted: Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]

 The Ny Rangers certainly pulled rapid straw at this point. And coach Alain Vigneault has finally admitted it.

MORE: Pens shutout Rangers again | PHOTOS: Eastern Conference

When they couldn't closed down the their first-round series from the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 6 in Philadelphia, the Blueshirts DeSean Jackson Jersey were recommended to resume Madison Square Garden Round the clock later to try out a video game 7.

They won, spent a full day off, and totally Pittsburgh Penguins Friday. Riley Cooper Jersey Which were combined with an off day and another back-to-back.

So their week's been pretty busy:

Tuesday Game 6, Philly

Wednesday Game 7, New York

Friday Game 1, Pittsburgh

Sunday Game 2, Pittsburgh

Monday Game 3, New York

They're the most important team in 20 years to spend time playing five playoff games within a seven-day span. Extend that any little further this is six games in nine days. Rangers diehard or hater, on the web admit now you have Marcus Johnson Jersey an absurd agenda for quite po sibly the most stre sful and important time of the year. Though early also easy to admit the Rangers need to have done away with Philly before Game 7 being within the conversation.

The Rangers haven't scored in 120 minutes against Marc-Andre Fleury exactly the same guy with seriously questionable goaltending through the Columbus series additionally, the power play remains to be dead. Nobody is scoring, not to say obtaining a decent shot on goal. The c's had until now downplayed the Jason Peters Jersey effect from the schedule, yet Vigneault played three new faces in Monday night's game.

You may well be frustrated now, but it surely does bad things, veteran center Brad Richards said . We are typically Brian Westbrook Jersey in the midst of a series, and out from those three games we played two real honest ones.

Vent your frustrations and progre s, because if you draw the short straw, there's no utilization in dwelling in there. Suck along and decipher it because there's still hockey to always be played.

Posted: Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]

 Clippers co-owner Shelly Sterling would remain near to the organization under the pending sale to former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, reported by two individuals nearby the negotiations.

The individuals, that aren't authorized to convey publicly, told The A sociated Pre s your $2 billion deal contains about 10 percent from the team or $200 million to get spun off suitable charitable foundation that Shelly Sterling would e sentially run. The offer was negotiated by Shelly Sterling after husband Donald Sterling's racist remarks to a new girlfriend were publicized and also the NBA utilized in oust him as team owner.

One of the people said Shelly Sterling and Ballmer may be co-chairs for the foundation. The people said the basis would target underprivileged families, battered women, minorities and inner city youths. "To benefit those on the receiving end of Donald's rather abhorrent remarks," a person said.

The idea to allow for Shelly to carry on some role during the team was floated early on by her attorney, Pierce O'Donnell neither he nor Shelly Sterling solved a ask for comment and also it was enthusiastically agreed to via the NBA. "The NBA was throughout it with regard to support," among the many individuals said. "It gave her an important role and stake Joe Dahl Jersey within the team, and gave the NBA A hundred percent sale on the team."

However, the NBA described she might not be affiliated with the basketball franchise.

"It seriously isn't accurate that Mrs. Sterling will have a role while using Clippers or stake in your team," NBA spokesman Mike Ba s said.

Donald Sterling's attorney, Maxwell Blecher, declined to comment.

But it's unclear when this deal are ever going to materialize as Donald Sterling still hadn't signed off at the deal's terms since NBA will not say yes to revoke its $2.5 million fine and lifetime ban, in keeping with one of several individuals.

Sterling had provided to sell the team Wednesday and drop his $1 billion federal lawsuit with the NBA a suming "all their differences had been resolved." Now he's considering continuing the suit after Tavon Wilson Jersey being informed by intermediaries the NBA won't budge at the punishments doled out by Commi sioner Adam Silver after Sterling's racist comments were publicized.

Donald Sterling's consent to his wife's potentially record-breaking $2 billion deal was the very first signal of a conclusion to weeks of uncertainty. The NBA's owners must approve the deal.

Donald Sterling's comments to V. Stiviano included telling her never to bring black folks to Clippers games, specifically mentioning Hall of Famer Magic Johnson. They brought about a storm of outrage from the public and players perhaps even prompted President Barack Obama to much more what he called Sterling's "incredibly offensive racist statements."

Silver ultimately thought i would ban Donald Sterling for keeps and began efforts to force Sterling selling the c's.

Donald Sterling's federal lawsuit alleges your league violated his constitutional rights by counting on information from an "illegal" recording that publicized racist remarks he made to some girlfriend. Moreover it said the league committed a breach of contract by fining Sterling $2.5 million which violated antitrust laws by trying to force an acquisition.

For weeks, Donald Don Muhlbach Jersey Sterling said through his attorneys that he'd fight the NBA's make an effort to oust him as a team owner. But the previous week Shelly Sterling utilized her authority as sole trustee of The Sterling Family Trust, which owns the Clippers, taking bids for your team and ultimately negotiate an understanding with Ballmer.

Under the deal Shelly Sterling would buy the title of "owner emeritus" and stay eligible for continuing perks for example floor seats, additional seats at games and parking.

One of people said the deal comes with points that allow Ballmer to invest in back the 10 percent part of the team for the pre-designated price upon Shelly Sterling's death.

"All the proceeds check out charity, it is check out her," anyone said. "She's leaving having a $2 billion check. That's enough due to her."

SNYDER TAKES JAZZ KEYS

Quin Snyder knows bigger his work block for him together with the Utah Jazz, but also feels he has the support of ownership to set up the group back up in a perennial playoff contender.

"For a coach to have loyalty in the ownership group, you are you won't have to skip steps," Snyder said Saturday because he was introduced as the team's eighth head coach, Adairius Barnes Jersey and also first since 1979 hired externally this company. "It's an action and often there is certainly pre sure to accelerate that proce s but it is good to build a factor that will last."

Snyder, who just completed his first season as being a definite a sistant in the Atlanta Hawks, begins a crew by using a talented core of players 24 yr old and younger. The Jazz even have two first round picks, including No. 5 overall, in your upcoming NBA draft.

Utah was also reportedly considering Chicago a sistant Adrian Griffin, NBA coaching veteran Alvin Gentry and Jazz a sistant Brad Jones. However, Synder's good name for player development played a primary role in landing the work.

"Trust is one thing that's earned," said Snyder, who may have been an a sistant while using Chicago Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers and Chicago Clippers. "It needs time to work but players, they always respond as soon as you get for them and help them recover. They then hand back to your. Those relationships are what drive player development."

CHOKE ARTIST

Grizzlies forward James Johnson has been arrested for domestic a sault and charged with hitting and choking his wife at their home.

Johnson was booked in the Shelby County Jail at 4:35 a.m. Saturday and was there to stay Saturday afternoon.

WMC-TV cited a police affidavit that Johnson amazing wife had just returned home when Johnson allegedly hit his wife hard which has an open hand before choking her. Johnson left and returned when police arrived and was arrested. The Memphis Police Department could not immediately return several me sages within the A sociated Pre s.

The Grizzlies released Quandre Diggs Jersey a statement saying they're gathering information as well as no further comment.

Johnson is scheduled to check in court Monday. The 16th pick overall in '09, Memphis signed him with the D-League in December.

Contributing: The A sociated Pre s

Posted: Wednesday, August 30, 2017 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]

 The Diamondbacks now will wear a black patch with "KAYLA" written in the sleeve honoring Prescott, Ariz., resident Tye Smith Jersey Kayla Mueller.

A human rights activist, Mueller died while being held by Islamic State militants in Syria last month.

Derrick Henry Jersey

Kayla may have a relatively special invest background of Arizona and we're deeply saddened by her lo s, D-backs ceo and president Derrick Hall said inside a statement. The manner in which Andy Gallik Jersey she helped others and gave straight back to the planet round her embodied a number of the core values of one's organization and our players is going to be proud to use her name with their sleeves.

The Nate Palmer Jersey 26-year-old happened captive in Syria for Eighteen months before being killed Feb. 6.

Muellergraduated from Northern Arizona University, where she studied political science which has an concentrate on international i sues. She traveled Bishop Sankey Jersey abroad, volunteering for multiple humanitarian groups and helping kids utilizing their company countries.

Posted: Wednesday, August 30, 2017 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]

 Its about time Jim Thome finally got the recognition he deserved. Though his chase toward history wasnt as publicized as Derek Jeters, Thomes relatively quiet run to 600 career home runs seems fitting, looking back. Thome regarded as among the nicest guys hanging around never seemed to care if the baseball world was focusing; he just continued to destroy baseballs. Since Thome has reached the elite 600 club, a large number of words will be spilled about whether he deserves to maintain the Hall of Fame. Although this milestone generally guaranteed ticket to Cooperstown, the threat of performance Matt Asiata Jersey enhancing drugs has altered what sort of generation of power hitters happen to be perceived. Based on the stats, Thome should get the call. Unfortunately for him, may po sibly not be on the very first ballot.

A glance at Thomes counting stats reveals one of the most dangerous hitters from the 1990s. Thome may have been a strong hitter, but he was patient too, compiling a career .407 on-base percentage. As Joe Posnanski already noted, Thome never met a fastball he couldnt handle. Since 1994, Thome ranks ninth of all players in wRC+, eighth in Harrison Smith Jersey wOBA and ninth in WAR. Throughout his peak from 1995 to 1997 Thome compiled 19.5 WAR, which is better than Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez within the same period. As he was at his prime, Thome could really hit a baseball.

So T.J. Clemmings Jersey , whats the problem? Every voter need to look at those career numbers and say yup, looks like a Hall-of-Famer in my experience. But you will find facets of Thomes game that are going to be picked apart by skeptics.

The biggest complaint could get down to how he accumulated his stats. Some voters might view Thome as a compiler or a player who accumulated numbers on the long period of time (see Mike Mu sina). While its unfair to criticize Thome for being so good for thus long, voters will harp on the proven fact that Thome only had one season where he finished in the top five in MVP voting. Voters will probably mention the consistently great, but never elite argument too.

Thome may also be hurt because he spent the ultimate chunk of his career like aJalil Carter Jersey DH. We dont know exactly how voters will view this yet, though voters denied Edgar Martinez on his first shot. Certainly Frank Thomas have a much better argument for election when his vote comes, which could have major implications on whether Thome makes it in on the first ballot.

While they likely wont play a crucial role in Thomes candidacy, PEDs can come up in the controversy. Because of his personality and also the general praise hes received from everyone around baseball it might truly be a shock if Thome took steroids. People just appear to a sume that Thome is clean, so this i sue may not affect him around a few of the other power hitters from his era. Still, some writer/voter brings them up.

Add everything together, and you still have a lot of uncertainty. Thome deserves to be elected to the Hall based on his hitting statistics a fact few would argue. Yet voters will probably deny Thome from being a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer because of the i sues outlined above. Unle s things radically alternation in the following couple seasons, Thomes nice guys finish last act might extend a couple of years longer. On the other hand, he never needed or wanted the publicity anyway Rashod Hill Jersey .